Democratic Poll: Mike Levin Ahead in California’s 49th District
Levin and Republican Diane Harkey are top two in survey
Source: Roll Call
June 1, 2018
A Democratic poll shows a tight contest with attorney Mike Levin narrowly ahead of Republican Diane Harkey in the crowded race for California’s 49th District.
The 49th District is one of three races in Southern California where Democrats are concerned the top-two primary system could spell disaster since the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. With a number of candidates on both sides, the concern is Democrats could split their voters, causing two Republicans to advance to November.
A survey conducted by Tulchin Research showed 17 percent of respondents backed Levin while Harkey was in second with 15 percent, according to a Democratic group interested in the race. Harkey is a member of the Board of Equalization, an elected body that oversees tax administration.
Doug Applegate, the 2016 Democratic nominee who lost a narrow race to GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, garnered 12 percent in the survey. Democrat Sara Jacobs and GOP state Rep. Rocky Chavez were both at 11 percent.
Businessman Paul Kerr was the only Democrat in single digits at 7 percent. Two Republicans were also in the single digits. San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar was at 7 percent while San Juan Capistrano City Councilman Brian Maryott was at 6 percent.
Thirteen percent of those surveyed were undecided. The poll had a 4 percent margin of error. Tulchin surveyed 500 likely primary voters between May 22 and 24, via live telephone interviews using both landline and mobile phones.
The 49th District is a top target for Democrats looking to win back the House since Hillary Clintoncarried the district by 8 points in 2016. Issa won re-election by less than one point and announced earlier this year that he was retiring.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race a Toss-up.